AbstractThis paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however be improved upon using a generalized Phillips curve based on measures of real aggregate activity other than unemployment, especially a new index of aggregate activity based on 61 real economic indicators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 44 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997.
"Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Is There a Role for Monetary Aggregates in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, F.S., 1988.
"What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?,"
fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993.
"Low frequency filtering and real business cycles,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
- West, K.D., 1994.
"Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability,"
9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Yeung Lewis Chan & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 91-121.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996.
"How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?,"
NBER Working Papers
5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1982.
"Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1087-1117, December.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1983. "Price Inertia and Policy Ineffectiveness in the United States, 1890-1980," NBER Working Papers 0744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992.
"Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
- King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994.
"The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Robert Shimer, 1999. "Why is the U.S. Unemployment Rate So Much Lower?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 11-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
- Snower,Dennis J. & Dehesa,Guillermo de la (ed.), 1997. "Unemployment Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521599214, December.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997.
"The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1999.
"Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1998. "Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 415, Boston College Department of Economics.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.