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PPP May not Hold Afterall: A Further Investigation

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  • Serena Ng

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University)

  • Pierre Perron

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

In a recent paper, Engel, C. (1999) presents monte-carlo evidence to suggest that unit root tests cannot detect a non-stationary component in the real exchange rate even when this component accounts for almost half of its longhorizon forecast error variance. This hidden non-stationary component led to the conclusion that long run purchasing power parity might not hold afterall. In this note, we first point out some conceptual difficulties with the statistic being used to measure the size of the non-stationary component, and then argue that it bears no systematic relationship with rejection rates in unit root tests. The problems stem from near observational equivalence of the simulated model in not one, but two dimensions. We then discuss the steps a practitioner can take to minimize Type I error in cases when the non-stationary component is hard to detect. Real exchange rate data for 19 countries are examined and estimates are obtained for the duration of the real exchange rate shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics in its series CEMA Working Papers with number 83.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Annals of Economics and Finance, May 2002, pages 43-64
Handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:83

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Web page: http://cema.cufe.edu.cn/
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Related research

Keywords: PPP; Monte-carlo; Unit root;

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References

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Perron, P., 1989. "Test Consistency With Varying Sampling Frequency," Papers 345, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. Perron, P., 1994. "The Adequacy of Asymptotic Approximations in the Near-Integrated Autoregressive Model with Dependent Errors," Cahiers de recherche 9424, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1996. "An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for Nonstationarity Tests," Cahiers de recherche 9611, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  11. Nabeya, Seiji & Perron, Pierre, 1994. "Local asymptotic distribution related to the AR(1) model with dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-264, June.
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  14. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  17. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Fischer, Christoph & Porath, Daniel, 2006. "A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP: a systematic investigation into MA roots in panel unit root tests and their implications," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gawon Yoon, 2003. "The time series behaviour of Brazilian inflation rate: new evidence from unit root tests with good size and power," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 627-631.
  5. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
  6. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
  7. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2002. "A simple test for PPP among traded goods," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-02, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. Seung Hyun Hong & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1541, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
  10. De-Chih Liu, 2011. "Hysteresis Hypothesis in Job Creation and Destruction: Evidence from the U.S," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 389-409, November.
  11. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2008. "How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1636-1647, August.
  12. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007,24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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