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Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective

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Author Info
Marika Karanassou () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Hector Sala () (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
Dennis J. Snower () (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

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Abstract

The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long-run implies the compartmentalisation of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of the new Phillips curve (NPC), we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay between lags and growth, generates an inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long-run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, like the chain reaction theory (CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector autoregressions (VARs)

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Paper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008-08.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2008-08

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Related research
Keywords: Natural rate of unemployment; new Phillips Curve; frictional growth; inflation-unemployment tradeoff; inflation dynamics; unemployment dynamics; impulse response function;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve: A Reassessment of the US Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 4299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "The Evolution of Inflation and Unemployment: Explaining the Roaring Nineties," Kiel Working Papers 1350, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1326, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The US Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Methodological Issues and Further Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 4252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2007. "Labour Market Flexibility and Regional Unemployment Rate Dynamics: Spain 1980-1995," IZA Discussion Papers 2593, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Pablo , Agnese & Hector , Sala, 2008. "Unemployment in Japan: A look at the ‘lost decade’," MPRA Paper 14332, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gene Ambrocio & Tae-Seok Jang, 2009. "Productivity Shocks and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Evidence from US and Euro Area," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 453, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Agnese, Pablo & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge," MPRA Paper 16501, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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