Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate
AbstractThis paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a sequential procedure), using a Lagrange Multiplier procedure with a standard null limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some non-linear functions of the labour demand variables (real oil prices and real interest rates). We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather than a NAIRU model with an underlying unemployment equilibrium rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilisation policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with implications for both forecasting and policy-making.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 04-17.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, 08.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Non-linearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate," HWWA Discussion Papers 259, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M. Caporale, . "Nonlinearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate," Faculty Working Papers 18/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-10-21 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-10-21 (Econometric Time Series)
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