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Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ()
Luis A. Gil-Alana

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Abstract

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a sequential procedure), using a Lagrange Multiplier procedure with a standard null limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some non-linear functions of the labour demand variables (real oil prices and real interest rates). We also find evidence of a long-memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather than a NAIRU model with an underlying unemployment equilibrium rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilisation policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with implications for both forecasting and policy-making.

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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 04-17.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:04-17

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  22. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2002. "Unemployment and Input Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 347-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. repec:bep:sndecm:5:2001:3:1078-1078 is not listed on IDEAS
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  32. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Philip Rothman, 1999. "Time Irreversible Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9903, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  34. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
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  37. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  40. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks In The Us, Uk And Japanese Unemployment Rates," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2008. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1441, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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