Unemployment Persistence : Does the Size of the Shock Matter ?
AbstractOne of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a purely statistical analysis based on nonparametric densitity estimation techniques to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of seventeen countries. We find that in most countries, unemployment persistence is small one the (infrequently) changing mean rate has been removed. The changes in the mean rate coincide with the largest single annual changes in actual unemployment. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with hysteresis models which explain why unemployment hysteresis arises following large shocks to unemployment, but not following small changes. The result poses a challenge to theorist since existing hysteresis models do not have this non-linearity property.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1995014.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1995
Date of revision:
unemployment hysteresis; infrequent mean shifts; kernel density estimation; multimodality tests;
Other versions of this item:
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
- Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- L32 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Public Enterprises; Public-Private Enterprises
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