Unemployment Persistence : Does the Size of the Shock Matter ?
AbstractOne of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a purely statistical analysis based on nonparametric densitity estimation techniques to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of seventeen countries. We find that in most countries, unemployment persistence is small one the (infrequently) changing mean rate has been removed. The changes in the mean rate coincide with the largest single annual changes in actual unemployment. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with hysteresis models which explain why unemployment hysteresis arises following large shocks to unemployment, but not following small changes. The result poses a challenge to theorist since existing hysteresis models do not have this non-linearity property.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1995014.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1995
Date of revision:
unemployment hysteresis; infrequent mean shifts; kernel density estimation; multimodality tests;
Other versions of this item:
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
- Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- L32 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Public Enterprises; Public-Private Enterprises
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
Bank of England working papers
31, Bank of England.
- Francis Breedon & Ian Twinn, 1995. "Valuation of underwriting agreements for UK rights issues: evidence from the traded option market," Bank of England working papers 39, Bank of England.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.