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How Cyclical is the PSBR?

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  • Joanna Paisley
  • Chris Salmon
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the methodology of cyclical adjustment of fiscal balances. The crucial assumption underlying any estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance (CAB) is found to be the measure of the output gap. Estimates for the UK are presented, suggesting that when the economy returns to trend the PSBR should fall by between 3% to 4.5% of GDP from its position at the end of 1992.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1995/wp34.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 34.

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    Date of creation: May 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:34

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    1. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:
    1. Sergio Ginebri & Bernardo Maggi & Manuel Turco, 2005. "The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 67-81.

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