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The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis

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Author Info
Sergio Ginebri
Bernardo Maggi
Manuel Turco
Abstract

The paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of Italy's primary budget balance to macroeconomic variables. The analysis has distinguishing features: detailed itemization of public finance aggregates; close attention to the statistical properties of the time series; and joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real GDP and inflation. First, the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen. Second, when possible, a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item. Third, each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables. Fourth, each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components. The effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real GDP.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 67-81
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:1:p:67-81

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  1. Braconier, Henrik & Holden, Steinar, 1999. "The Public Budget Balance - Fiscal Indicators and Cyclical Sensitivity in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper 67, National Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-5.

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