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Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth

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  • Aghion, Philippe
  • Hemous, David
  • Kharroubi, Enisse

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy can affect growth. We first build a simple endogenous growth model where entrepreneurs can invest either in short-run projects or in long-term growth enhancing projects. Long-term projects involve a liquidity risk which credit constrained firms try to overcome by borrowing on the basis of their short-run profits. By increasing firms' market size in recessions, a countercyclical fiscal policy will boost investment in productivity-enhancing long-term projects, and the more so in sectors that rely more on external financing or which display lower asset tangibility. Second, the paper tests this prediction using Rajan and Zingales (1998)'s diff-and-diff methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 17 OECD countries over the period 1980-2005. The evidence confirms that the positive effects of a more countercyclical fiscal policy on value added growth, productivity growth, and R&D expenditure, are indeed larger in industries with heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7359.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7359

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Keywords: counter-cyclicality; financial dependence; fiscal policy; growth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
  2. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2011. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises," IMF Working Papers 11/45, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Martín Guzman & Pablo Gluzmann, 2012. "Tensions in the Implementation of Central Banks’ Policies in the Pursuit of Economic Development," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 173-205, September.
  4. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?," Working Papers 113, Bank of Greece.
  5. Piero Ferri & Steve Fazzari & Edward Greenberg & Anna Variato, 2011. "Aggregate Demand, Harrod’s Instability and Fluctuations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 209-220, October.
  6. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
  8. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Luc Laeven & Oana M. Nedelescu & Stijn Claessens & Fabian Valencia & Marc Dobler & Katharine Seal, 2011. "Crisis Management and Resolution," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/05, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1046, OECD Publishing.
  10. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2013. "The unemployment effects of fiscal policy: recent evidence from Greece," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.

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