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Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth

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Author Info
Fatás, Antonio
Mihov, Ilian

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Abstract

There is a significant controversy among academics and policy-makers about whether policies matter for economic growth. Recently, Acemoglu et al. (2003) and Easterly (2004) have presented empirical evidence against the commonly held view that policies play an important role in the process of economic development. Their key conclusion is that macroeconomic policies (monetary, fiscal and trade) have an explanatory power for the cross-country variation in growth rates and income per capita only because they serve as proxies for institutions. While we confirm their results using levels of policy variables (inflation and government spending), we present evidence that policy volatility exerts a strong and direct negative impact on growth. In a cross-section of 91 countries, policy volatility emerges as a key determinant of macroeconomic performance. An increase in the volatility of fiscal policy corresponding to one standard deviation in the sample reduces long-term economic growth by about 0.75 percentage points. Political institutions have a role to play to the extent that they shape policy outcomes.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5388.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5388

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal policy; growth; institutions; macroeconomic volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ari Aisen & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "Political Instability and Inflation Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 2/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  3. Herrera, Santiago & Vincent, Bruno, 2008. "Public expenditure and consumption volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4633, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rishi Goyal & Ratna Sahay, 2007. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/287, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Xavier Debrun & Theo Thomas & Taline Koranchelian & Isabell Adenauer & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz, 2006. "Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid," IMF Working Papers 06/270, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," CEPR Discussion Papers 6513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responiveness, Persistence and Discretion," Working Papers 2008/50, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: a Theoretical Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2008_16, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Determinants of Public Deficit Volatility," NIPE Working Papers 11/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Karsten Staehr, 2007. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Davide Furceri & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 924, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2007. "Hechos estilizados de la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 14, pages 33-75. [Downloadable!]
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