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Technological diversification

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Author Info
Miklós Koren
Silvana Tenreyro

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Abstract

Economies at early stages of development are often shaken by abrupt changes in growth rates, whereas in advanced economies growth rates tend to be relatively stable. To explain this pattern, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. Technological progress takes the form of an increase in the number of varieties, raising average productivity. In addition, the expansion in the number of varieties in our model provides diversification benefits against variety-specific shocks and it can hence lower the volatility of output growth. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit incentives. The decline in volatility thus arises as a by-product of firms’ incentives to increase profits and is hence a likely outcome of the development process. We quantitatively asses the predictions of the model in light of the empirical evidence and find that for reasonable parameter values, the model can generate a decline in volatility with the level of development comparable to that in the data.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2007:i:nov:x:4

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stephen Hymer & Peter Pashigian, 1962. "Firm Size and Rate of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 556. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Koren, Miklós & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2001. "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 328-335, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernard, Andrew & Jensen, J Bradford & Redding, Stephen J & Schott, Peter, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
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  7. Overman, Henry G. & Rice, Patricia & Venables, Anthony J., 2008. "Economic Linkages Across Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 6786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alejandro Cuñat & Marc J. Melitz, 2007. "Volatility, Labor Market Flexibility, and the Pattern of Comparative Advantage," NBER Working Papers 13062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  11. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Technological choice, financial markets and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 763-781, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Caselli, Francesco & Wilson, Daniel J., 2004. "Importing technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
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  15. Francesco Caselli, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Comin, D. & Hobijn, B., 2004. "Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 39-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jaume Ventura, 1998. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-Section of Business Cycles," Working papers 98-9, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  19. Ross Levine, 1990. "Financial structure and economic development," International Finance Discussion Papers 381, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
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  22. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Cuberes, David & Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2008. "Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals," MPRA Paper 11646, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GREThA 2008-22, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Catia Batista & Jacques Potin, 2007. "Stages of diversification and specialization in an Heckscher-Ohlin world, 1976-2000," Economics Series Working Papers 356, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Diego Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2005. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 11388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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