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Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility

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Author Info
Reint Gropp
Jukka Vesala
Giuseppe Vulpes

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Abstract

We analyse the ability of equity market-based distances-to-default and subordinated bond spreads to signal a material weakening in banks' financial condition. Using option pricing, we show that both indicators are complete and unbiased indicators of bank fragility. We empirically test these properties using a sample of EU banks. Two different econometric models are estimated: a series of logit-models, which were estimated for different time-leads, and a proportional hazard model. We find support in favour of using both the distance-to-default and spread as leading indicators of bank fragility, regardless of our econometric specification. However, while we find robust predictive performance of the distance-to-default between 6 to 18 months in advance, its predictive properties are quite poor closer to the default. In contrast, subordinated debt spreads seem to have signal value close to default only. We also find that the predictive power of spreads appears to be weakened by implicit safety nets. We find no such evidence for the distances-to-default. Further, we find support for the notion that the market-based predictors of default have predictive power even controlling for balance sheet information and that both indicators may complement each other. We interpret our finding as providing some measure of support for the use of market information in supervisor's early warning models.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

Volume (Year): (2002)
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2002:x:4

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Keywords: Options (Finance) Bonds Bank stocks

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala, 2001. "Deposit insurance and moral hazard: does the counterfactual matter?," Working Paper Series 47, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert R. Bliss, 2000. "The pitfalls in inferring risk from financial market data," Working Paper Series WP-00-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Edward Altman & Anthony Saunders, 2000. "An Analysis and Critique of the BIS Proposal on Capital Adequacy and Ratings," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-084, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 1999. "Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?," Staff Reports 95, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reint Gropp & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Rating agency actions and the pricing of debt and equity of European banks: What can we infer about private sector monitoring of bank soundness?," Working Paper Series 076, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Smirlock, Michael & Kaufold, Howard, 1987. "Bank Foreign Lending, Mandatory Disclosure Rules, and the Reaction of Bank Stock Prices to the Mexican Debt Crisis," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 347-64, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt as bank capital: a proposal for regulatory reform," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 40-53. [Downloadable!]
  22. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, . "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  23. Julapa Jagtiani & George Kaufman & Catharine Lemieux, 1999. "Do markets discipline banks and bank holding companies? evidence from debt pricing," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  24. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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