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Long-term growth and short-term economic instability

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  • Martin, Philippe
  • Ann Rogers, Carol

Abstract

When learning-by-doing is at the origin of growth, we show that growth rates should be negatively related to the amplitude of the business cycle if the growth rate in human capital is increasing and concave in the cyclical component of production. Empirical evidence strongly supports this finding for industrialized countries and European regions. Using the standard control variables, we find that countries and regions that have higher standard deviations of growth and of unemployment have lower growth rates. The result does not come from an effect of instability on investment. The negative relation does not hold for non-industrialized countries, however, for which learning-by-doing may not to be the main engine of growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 44 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 359-381

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:44:y:2000:i:2:p:359-381

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  1. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Stabilization Policy, Learning by Doing, and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Productivity Growth and the Structure of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 709, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
  4. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
  5. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
  8. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  9. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-72, June.
  10. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September.
  12. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Bean, Charles R., 1990. "Endogenous growth and the procyclical behaviour of productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 355-363, May.
  14. Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Papers fb-_91-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  15. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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