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The Geography of Output Volatility

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Author Info
Malik, Adeel
Temple, Jonathan

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Abstract

This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5516.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5516

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; geography; institutions; volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. repec:rus:hseeco:72137 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
    Other versions:
  5. Alberto F. Ades & Edward L. Glaeser, 1999. "Evidence On Growth, Increasing Returns, And The Extent Of The Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 1025-1045, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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  1. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  3. Steven Poelhekke, 2008. "Urban Growth, Uninsured Risk, and the Rural Origins of Aggregate Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/26, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sai Ding & John Knight, 2008. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Structural Change," Economics Series Working Papers 415, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the distribution of growth rates," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/584, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "What drives liberal policies in developing countries?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/587, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sai Ding & John Knight, 2008. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capiital Formation," Economics Series Working Papers 414, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Oliver Röhn & Sultan Orazbayev & Aslan Sarinzhipov, 2009. "An Institutional Risk Analysis of the Kazakh Economy," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 70, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
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