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Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions

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Author Info
Carmen Fernandez (University of Saint Andrews)
Eduardo Ley (IMF Institute)
Mark Steel (University of Kent at Canterbury)

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Abstract

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support this claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic'' conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, care should be taken in the methodology employed. The approach proposed here is firmly grounded in statistical theory and immediately leads to posterior and predictive inference.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0110002.

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Date of creation: 06 Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0110002

Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on MacOS, TeXtures; to print on any printer; figures: included. Forthcoming in the Journal of Applied Econometrics
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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging; Choice of Regressors; Economic Growth; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Prediction;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O49 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. repec:att:wimass:1920024 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. William A. Brock & Steven N.Durlauf, 2000. "Growth Economics and Reality," NBER Working Papers 8041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August. [Downloadable!]
  12. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  14. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. De Long, J Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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