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What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?

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Author Info
Marianne Baxter
Michael A. Kouparitsas

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Abstract

This paper studies the sources of terms of trade volatility. We decompose the terms of trade into two components. The 'goods price' component stems from differences in the composition of import and export baskets, while the 'country price' component stems from deviations from the law of one price. Countries are classified according to their major import and export goods: commodities, manufactured goods and fuels. Except fuel exporters, there is roughly equal importance of goods price vs country price volatility. These results suggest that there may be a role for reducing terms of trade volatility through diversification of a country's exports. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (05)
Pages: 63-86
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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:9:y:2006:i:1:p:63-86

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  2. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Knetter, Michael M, 1993. "International Comparisons of Price-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 473-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael A. Koupatrisas, 2001. "Evidence of the North--South business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 46-59. [Downloadable!]
  3. Margaret McMillan & Alix Peterson Zwane & Nava Ashraf, 2005. "My Policies or Yours: Does OECD Support for Agriculture Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Maurizio Michael Habib & Margarita Manolova Kalamova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: Cross-country evidence," Economics Papers 2005-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  7. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Do asymmetric terms of trade shocks affect private savings in a transition economy?," Macroeconomics 0303006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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