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Are Any Growth Theories Robust?

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Author Info
Steven N. Durlauf
Andros KOURTELLOS
Chih Ming Tan

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Abstract

The recent growth literature has seen an explosion of work exploring the role of new and fundamental theories of growth such as geography, institutions, ethnic fractionalization, and religion. Nevertheless, claims about the empirical validity of these new growth theories are typically made within very particular specifications of the growth model. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of these theories when the researcher appropriately accounts for model uncertainty. We first consider the robustness of these theories within the canonical growth regression framework. We then deviate from this framework to explore the impact of these new growth theories on the components of growth – TFP growth and physical and human accumulation rates – derived from a growth accounting exercise. We find very little evidence to support the contention that any of the new growth theories play an important and robust role in explaining growth and its components. We find instead that variation in growth may be robustly explained by differences in macroeconomic policies and unknown heterogeneity associated with regional groupings. We also find that, consistent with endogenous growth models, physical and human capital externalities are the main determinants of TFP growth.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Tufts University in its series Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University with number 0703.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0703

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Related research
Keywords: Economic growth; Total Factor Productivity; Model Uncertainty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2006. "Is God in the Details? A Reexamination of the Role of Religion in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0613, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Cooray, Arusha, 2008. "How useful is the theoretical and empirical growth literature for policies in the developing countries?," MPRA Paper 11481, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marijana Badjun, 2009. "Financial Intermediation by Banks and Economic Growth: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 121-152. [Downloadable!]
  4. Deckers, Thomas & Hanck, Christoph, 2009. "Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics," MPRA Paper 17843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philip Bodman & Harry Campbell & Kelly-Ana Heaton & Andrew Hodge, . "Fiscal Decentralisation, Macroeconomic Conditions and Economic Growth in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2009. "Quality in work and aggregate productivity," IREA Working Papers 200901, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Ben-Gad, 2009. "The Two Sector Endogenous Growth Model: An Atlas," City University Economics Discussion Papers 09/02, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
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