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Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Investment and Output across Countries

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  • Byeongju Jeong

    (CERGE-EI, Charles University and the Academy of Science, Czech Republic)

Abstract

I present a model economy where policy uncertainty creates short-term bias in investment and leads to a higher capital price and lower long-run investment and output. I conduct a calibration exercise using a set of industry-level investment data across countries. Between the lowest-income and the highest-income countries, policy uncertainty can account for capital price and investment-level differences by a factor of about 3 and for the output-level difference by a factor of about 2. Copyright Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 43 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 363-392

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:43:y:2002:i:2:p:363-392

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Cited by:
  1. Adeel Malik & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2005. "The Geography of Output Volatility," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2005-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Mellati, Ali, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment in private sector: An analytical argument and a review of the economy of Iran," MPRA Paper 26655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
  4. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
  5. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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