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Are Any Growth Theories Robust?

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Author Info
StevenN. Durlauf
Andros Kourtellos
ChihMing Tan

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Abstract

This article investigates the strength of empirical evidence for various growth theories when there is model uncertainty with respect to the correct growth model. Using model averaging methods, we find little evidence that so-called fundamental growth theories play an important role in explaining aggregate growth. In contrast, we find strong evidence for macroeconomic policy effects and a role for unexplained regional heterogeneity, as well as some evidence of parameter heterogeneity in the aggregate production function. We conclude that the ability of cross-country growth regressions to adjudicate the relative importance of alternative growth theories is limited. Copyright © 2008 The Author(s).

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02123.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 118 (2008)
Issue (Month): 527 (03)
Pages: 329-346
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:118:y:2008:i:527:p:329-346

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Cooray, Arusha, 2008. "How useful is the theoretical and empirical growth literature for policies in the developing countries?," MPRA Paper 11481, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marijana Badjun, 2009. "Financial Intermediation by Banks and Economic Growth: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 121-152. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Stehrer & Neil Foster & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma, 2009. "The Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Working Papers 54, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw. [Downloadable!]
  5. Deckers, Thomas & Hanck, Christoph, 2009. "Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics," MPRA Paper 17843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vicente Royuela & Jordi Suriñach, 2009. "Quality in work and aggregate productivity," IREA Working Papers 200901, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Theo S. Eicher & Alex Lenkoski & Adrian Raftery, 2009. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Endogeneity Under Model Uncertainty: An Application to Development Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2009-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arno TAUSCH & Almas Heshmati, 2009. "Re-Orient? MNC Penetration and Contemporary Shifts in the Global Political Economy," Discussion Papers 200911, Seoul National University, Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program(TEMEP), revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michael Ben-Gad, 2009. "The Two Sector Endogenous Growth Model: An Atlas," City University Economics Discussion Papers 09/02, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philip Bodman & Harry Campbell & Kelly-Ana Heaton & Andrew Hodge, . "Fiscal Decentralisation, Macroeconomic Conditions and Economic Growth in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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