We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support this claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more "optimistic'' conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, care should be taken in the methodology employed. The approach proposed here is firmly grounded in statistical theory and immediately leads to posterior and predictive inference.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number
9903003.
Length: Date of creation: 27 Mar 1999 Date of revision:
06 Oct 2001 Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9903003
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on MacOS, TeXtures; to print on any printer; figures: included. Forthcoming in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Replaces the paper entitled: "We have just averaged over two trillion cross-country growth regressions" with ewp-em/0110002. Contact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
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Find related papers by JEL classification: O49 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999.
"The new empirics of economic growth,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308
Elsevier.
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Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
"Convergence,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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