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Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy

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  • Cohen-Cole, Ethan B.
  • Durlauf, Steven N.
  • Rondina, Giacomo

Abstract

This paper considers the question of how one can translate evidence of nonlinearities and threshold effects in growth into policy recommendations. We argue that the current evidence of these effects, while important in terms of scholarly debates, does not readily lend itself to policy evaluation. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, the existing evidence on nonlinearities is relatively difficult to integrate into a common coherent view. Different models of nonlinearity appear in different papers; these models are often nonnested and do not present a clear alternative to linear growth models. Second, we argue that the econometric evidence of nonlinearities is often developed in ways that do not allow one to examine explicitly the effects of alternative policies on growth. We describe some recent econometric methods that can address these problems. To illustrate the utility of these methods we then study the current debate on the efficacy of aid on growth in developing countries. We find that none of our methods suggests that aid should be given to countries with better policy quality. In fact, when considering robust policies, our results strongly reject the conclusion that aid should be allocated in higher amounts to countries where the policy quality is high.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 42-58

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:42-58

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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Keywords: Nonlinearity; Growth; Policy evaluation;

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Cited by:
  1. Jetter, Michael & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Smith, William T., 2013. "The effects of wage volatility on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 93-109.
  2. Kourtellos, Andros & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2007. "Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?:," IFPRI discussion papers 694, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Aleksandra PARTEKA & Massimo TAMBERI, 2012. "Relative product diversification in the course of economic development: import-export analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2012-23, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  4. Parteka, Aleksandra & Tamberi, Massimo, 2013. "Product diversification, relative specialisation and economic development: Import–export analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 121-135.
  5. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, 03.
  6. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2011. "Persistent poverty and informal credit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 337-347, November.
  7. : Daniel J. Henderson & Chris Papageorgiou & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2012. "Who Benefits from Financial Development? New Methods, New Evidence," Working Papers 2013-07, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
  8. Michael Jetter, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010944, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
  9. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2006. "Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25487, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Edgardo A. Ayala Gaytán & Joana C. Chapa Cantú & Juan D. Murguía Hernández, 2011. "Una reconsideración sobre la convergencia regional en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 26(2), pages 217-247.

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