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Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory

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Author Info

  • Lars Peter Hansen

    (University of Chicago)

  • Thomas J. Sargent

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

We explore methods for confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics. We construct dynamic equilibria in which private agents and policy makers recognize that models are approximations. We explore two generalizations of reational expectations equilibria. In one of these equilibria, decision-makers use dynamic evolution equations that are imperfect statistical approximations, and in the other misspecification is impossible to detect even from infinite samples of time series data. In the first of these equilibria, decision rules are tailored to be robust to the allowable statistical discrepancies. Using frequency domain methods, we show that robust decision-makers treat model misspecification like time series econometricians.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.2001.0132
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 519-535

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:519-535

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Related research

Keywords: Robustness; Model misspecification; monetary policy rational expectations;

References

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  2. Epstein, Larry G & Melino, Angelo, 1995. "A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing under Recursive Utility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 597-618, October.
  3. Pearlman, Joseph G., 1992. "Reputational and nonreputational policies under partial information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 339-357, April.
  4. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
  5. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1993. "Self-Confirming Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2147, David K. Levine.
  6. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  7. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Pearlman, Joseph & Currie, David & Levine, Paul, 1986. "Rational expectations models with partial information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 90-105, April.
  9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  10. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "The design of feedback rules in linear stochastic rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March.
  11. Weil, Philippe, 1993. "Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 367-83, April.
  12. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1998. "Learning in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 631-639, May.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Seasonality and approximation errors in rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 21-55.
  14. Sims, Christopher A., 1993. "Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 9-19.
  15. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1974. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Working Papers 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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