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Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

The paper proposes a technique to jointly tests for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of income per-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each group has clearly identifiable economics characteristics. -- In diesem Beitrag wird eine Methode vorgestellt, mit der es möglich ist, Gruppierungen von Querschnittsdaten von zunächst unbekanntem Umfang vorzunehmen und gleichzeitig die Parameterwerte jeder Gruppe zu schätzen. Diese Methode wird genutzt, um regionale Konvergenzclubs hinsichtlich des Pro-Kopf-Einkommens zu identifizieren. Im Falle europäischer Regionaldaten zeigt sich eine Steady-state Verteilung von vier Polen mit jeweils unterschiedlicher ökonomischer Ausprägung. Die Pro-Kopf-Einkommen der OECD Länder gruppieren sich um zwei Pole, wobei jede Gruppe deutlich unterscheidbare Merkmale aufweist.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 139.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26361

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Web page: http://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/20
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Keywords: Heterogeneities; Panel Data; Predictive Density; Income Inequality;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
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  10. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
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  19. Fabio Canova & Albert Marcet, 1995. "The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions," Economics Working Papers 137, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
  20. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
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  23. Desdoigts, Alain, 1999. " Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-30, September.
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