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Least Squares Model Averaging

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Bruce E. Hansen

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Abstract

This paper considers the problem of selection of weights for averaging across least squares estimates obtained from a set of models. Existing model average methods are based on exponential Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) weights. In distinction, this paper proposes selecting the weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion, the latter an estimate of the average squared error from the model average fit. We show that our new Mallows model average (MMA) estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared error in a class of discrete model average estimators. In a simulation experiment we show that the MMA estimator compares favorably with those based on AIC and BIC weights. The proof of the main result is an application of the work of Li (1987). Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00785.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 75 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (07)
Pages: 1175-1189
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:75:y:2007:i:4:p:1175-1189

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  1. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2009. "Growth Regressions, Principal Components and Frequentist Model Averaging," Economics Series 236, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 959, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2006. "Is God in the Details? A Reexamination of the Role of Religion in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0613, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Steven Durlauf & Jeffrey Fagan & Daniel Nagin, 2007. "Model uncertainty and the deterrent effect of capital punishment," Quantitative Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU07-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  6. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros KOURTELLOS & Chih Ming Tan, 2007. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0703, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2008. "Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates Using Simulation and Model Averaging," Economics Series 231, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Documents de Travail 234, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Galbraith & Douglas James Hodgson, 2009. "Dimension Reduction and Model Averaging for Estimation of Artists’ Age-Valuation Profiles," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-41, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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