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Model Selection And Inference: Facts And Fiction

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Author Info
Leeb, Hannes
P tscher, Benedikt M.
Abstract

Model selection has an important impact on subsequent inference. Ignoring the model selection step leads to invalid inference. We discuss some intricate aspects of data-driven model selection that do not seem to have been widely appreciated in the literature. We debunk some myths about model selection, in particular the myth that consistent model selection has no effect on subsequent inference asymptotically. We also discuss an impossibility result regarding the estimation of the finite-sample distribution of post-model-selection estimators.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466605050036
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 21-59
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:01:p:21-59_05

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  1. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007. "Validity of Subsampling and "Plug-in Asymptotic" Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1620, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jörg Stoye, 2008. "More on confidence intervals for partially identified parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2007. "Confidence Sets Based on Sparse Estimators Are Necessarily Large," MPRA Paper 5677, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  5. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A Modified Information Criterion for Cointegration Tests based on a VAR Approximation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-011, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Schneider, Ulrike, 2007. "On the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator," MPRA Paper 6913, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Can One Estimate the Unconditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators ?," MPRA Paper 72, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Kyungchul Song, 2007. "Asymptotically Optimal Tests for Single-Index Restrictions with a Focus on Average Partial Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hannes Leeb, 2006. "The distribution of a linear predictor after model selection: Unconditional finite-sample distributions and asymptotic approximations," Quantitative Finance Papers math/0611186, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2006. "The Distribution of Model Averaging Estimators and an Impossibility Result Regarding Its Estimation," MPRA Paper 73, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Pötscher, Benedikt M. & Leeb, Hannes, 2007. "On the distribution of penalized maximum likelihood estimators: The LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding," MPRA Paper 5615, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2007. "Hybrid and Size-Corrected Subsample Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1606, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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