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Do political institutions yield multiple growth regimes?

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  • David Coyne

    ()
    (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Chih-ming Tan

    ()
    (Clark University)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen 2000) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to political institutions. We also implement a novel approach to account for theory uncertainty by applying Bayesian model averaging in the threshold regression context. We find that less democratic countries, specifically those with less competitiveness in executive recruitment, follow a different growth process than those with higher competitiveness.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1442-1454

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00325

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Keywords: Economic Growth; Institutions; Threshold Regression; Regression Trees; Bayesian Model Averaging;

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  1. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2009. "Structural Threshold Regression," Working Papers 0907, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Davis, Lewis & Owen, Ann L. & Videras, Julio, 2007. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," MPRA Paper 11589, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2008.
  3. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
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  7. Kourtellos, Andros & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2007. "Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?:," IFPRI discussion papers 694, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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  16. McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth across Countries," Scholarly Articles 3708464, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  18. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
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