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Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence

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  • Dollar, David
  • Kraay, Aart

Abstract

Several recent papers have attempted to identify the partial effects of trade integration and institutional quality on long-run growth using the geographical determinants of trade and the historical determinants of institutions as instruments. The authors show that many of the specifications in these papers are weaklyidentified despite the apparently good performance of the instruments in first-stage regressions. Consequently, they argue that the cross-country variation in institutions, trade, and their geographical and historical determinants is not very informative about the partial effects of these variables on long-run growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3004.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3004

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Theory&Research; Governance Indicators; Environmental Economics&Policies; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences;

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  1. Clague, Christopher, et al, 1999. " Contract-Intensive Money: Contract Enforcement, Property Rights, and Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 185-211, June.
  2. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  3. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
  4. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2001. "Trade and productivity," Economics Working Papers 580, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2002.
  5. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
  6. Richard Startz & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrics 9905001, EconWPA.
  7. John Shea, 1996. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," NBER Technical Working Papers 0193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Frank Kleibergen, 2000. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-055/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. repec:chb:bcchwp:03 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1999. "Contract Intensive Money," MPRA Paper 25717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
  16. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  17. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
  18. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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