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Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator

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Author Info

  • Richard Startz

    (The University Washington)

  • Charles Nelson

    (The University of Washington)

  • Eric Zivot

    (The University of Washington)

Abstract

It is now well known that standard asymptotic inference techniques for instrumental variable estimation perform very poorly in the presence of weak instruments. Specifically, standard asymptotic techniques give spuriously small standard errors, leading investigators to accept apparently tight confidence regions which unfortunately may be very far from the true parameter of interest. We present an improved technique for inference on structural parameters based on reduced form estimates. The "S-statistic" produces confidence regions based on a joint test of the structural hypothesis and the identification condition. The S- statistic converges to the standard asymptotic Wald statistic as identification becomes certain, has much better size properties when the instruments are weak, and may be inverted in closed form to conveniently compute confidence regions. In addition to providing improved inference for instrumental variable estimation, the technique suggested here may be useful in other applications where weak identification is important.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9905001.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 25 May 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9905001

Note: Type of Document - MS Word; prepared on IBM PC; to print on PostScript; pages: 41 ; figures: included. Comments welcome
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: instrumental variables; Wald test; weak instruments;

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References

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  1. Nelson, C.R. & Startz, R. & Zivot, E., 1996. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benoit Perron, 2003. "Semiparametric Weak-Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Tradeoff," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 424-443, May.
  2. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2005. "Small Concentration Asymptotics and Instrumental Variables Inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Mohamed, 2007. "Further results on projection-based inference in IV regressions with weak, collinear or missing instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 133-153, July.
  4. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3004, The World Bank.
  5. Kleibergen, Frank & Zivot, Eric, 2003. "Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-72, May.
  6. Dufour, J.M., 2001. "Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie," Cahiers de recherche 2001-15, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2004. "Approximating the Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator when the Concentration Parameter is Small," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. D.S. Poskitt & C.L. Skeels, 2002. "Assessing Instrumental Variable Relevance:An Alternative Measure and Some Exact Finite Sample Theory," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 862, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Paul A. Bekker & Jan van der Ploeg, 2000. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Based on Grouped Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1862, Econometric Society.
  10. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2001. "Logique et tests d’hypothèses," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(2), pages 171-190, juin.

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