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Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments

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Author Info
Zivot, E
Startz, R
Nelson, C-R

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Abstract

We investigate confidence intervals and inference for the instrumental variables model with weak instruments. Wald-based confidence intervals for a structural parameter perform poorly in that the probability they reject the null is far greater than their nominal size. We show that the preactice of "pre-testing" by looking at the significance of the fist-stage regression and then making inference based on the Wald statistic leads to extremely poor results when the instruments are very weak.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Washington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97-17.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:97-17

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Keywords: STATISTICS;

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C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. D. Klepinger & S. Lundberg & R. Plotnick, . "Instrument selection: The case of teenage childbearing and women's educational attainment," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1077-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dufour, J.M., 1995. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Instrumental Variables, Dynamic Models and Cointegration," Cahiers de recherche 9539, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alastair R. Hall & Glenn D. Rudebusch & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  8. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. repec:att:wimass:199312 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1996. "Inference on a Structural Parameter in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrics 9610005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "Interpreting the Statistical Failures of Some Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 188-93, May.
  13. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul A. Bekker & Jan van der Ploeg, 2000. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Based on Grouped Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1862, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ross, Stephen L. & Zenou, Yves, 2007. "Are Shirking and Leisure Substitutable? An Empirical Test of Efficiency Wages based on Urban Economic Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 6128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Manjon-Antolin, M.C., 2004. "Econometric modelling in blockholder systems of corporate governance," Discussion Paper 74, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard Startz & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Improved Inference for the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrics 9905001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Albouy, 2006. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Investigation of the Settler Mortality Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1055, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. H.K. Van Dijk, 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Report 263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2001. "Logiques et tests d'hypothèses : réflexions sur les problèmes mal posés en économétrie," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-40, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Various Asymptotic Approximations To The Distribution Of Instrumental Variables Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 309-336. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2003. "Are New Keynesian Phillips Curved Identified?," Cahiers de recherche 0312, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Olsson, Ola, 2004. "Unbundling Ex-Colonies: A Comment on Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, 2001," Working Papers in Economics 146, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods," Working Papers 04-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2005. "Bias Corrected Instrumental Variables Estimation for Dynamic Panel Models with Fixed E¤ects," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-024, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:1:1434-1434 is not listed on IDEAS
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