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Instrument selection: The case of teenage childbearing and women's educational attainment

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  • D. Klepinger
  • S. Lundberg
  • R. Plotnick

Abstract

Recent research has identified situations in which instrumental variables (IV) estimators are severely biased and has suggested diagnostic tests to identify such situations. We suggest a number of alternative techniques for choosing a set of instruments that satisfy these tests from a universe of a priori plausible candidates, and we apply them to a study of the effects of adolescent childbearing on the educational attainment of young women. We find that substantive results are sensitive to instrument choice, and make two recommendations to the practical researcher: First, it is prudent to begin with a large set of potential instruments, when possible, and pare it down through formal testing rather than to rely on a minimal instrument set justified on a priori grounds. Second, the application of more restrictive tests of instrument validity and relevance can yield results very different from those based on less restrictive tests that produce a more inclusive set of instruments, and is the preferred, conservative approach when improper instrument choice can lead to biased estimates.

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Paper provided by University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty in its series Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers with number 1077-95.

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Handle: RePEc:wop:wispod:1077-95

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  1. Alice Nakamura & James R. Walker, 1994. "Model Evaluation and Choice," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(2), pages 223-247.
  2. Ribar, David C, 1994. "Teenage Fertility and High School Completion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 413-24, August.
  3. Geronimus, Arline T & Korenman, Sanders, 1992. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1187-214, November.
  4. Vella, Francis, 1993. "A Simple Estimator for Simultaneous Models with Censored Endogenous Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 441-57, May.
  5. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
  6. Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "The Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator and Its t-RatioWhen the Instrument is a Poor One," NBER Technical Working Papers 0069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Klepinger, D. & Lundberg, S. & Plotnick, R., 1994. "Adolescent Fertility and the Education Attainment of Young Women," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 94-5, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  9. Ruud, Paul A., 1984. "Tests of Specification in Econometrics," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4kq8m0hf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Alastair R. Hall & Glenn D. Rudebusch & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1988. "Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," NBER Technical Working Papers 0068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. John Bound & David A. Jaeger & Regina Baker, 1993. "The Cure Can Be Worse than the Disease: A Cautionary Tale Regarding Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-46, March.
  14. Ribar, D.C., 1991. "A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Teenage Fertility and High School Completion," Papers 5-91-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  15. Thomas Mroz, . "The Sensitivity of an Empirical Model of Married Women's Hours of Work to Economic and Statistical Assumptions," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 84-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  16. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-50, July.
  17. repec:att:wimass:9312 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  19. Randall J. Olsen & George Farkas, 1989. "Endogenous Covariates in Duration Models and the Effect of Adolescent Childbirth on Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53.
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Cited by:
  1. Zivot, E & Startz, R & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Valid Confidence Intervals and Inference in the Presence of Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-17, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Daniel Klepinger & Shelly Lundberg & Robert Plotnick, 1999. "How Does Adolescent Fertility Affect the Human Capital and Wages of Young Women?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 421-448.
  3. Budría, Santiago & Pereira, Pedro T., 2004. "On the Returns to Training in Portugal," IZA Discussion Papers 1429, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Zimmerman, Paul R. & Benson, Bruce L., 2007. "Alcohol and rape: An "economics-of-crime" perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 442-473, December.

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