This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An Identification-Robust Econometric Analysis

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jean-Marie Dufour
Lynda Khalaf
Maral Kichian

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The authors use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation. They focus on Galí and Gertler's (1999) specification, for both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rational-expectations assumption, and a modification to the latter that uses survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behaviour, and (iii) the frequency of price adjustment. Overall, the authors find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the United States, whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Their findings underscore the need for employing identification-robust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2005/wp05-27.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-27.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-27

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8899
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

Order Information:
Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Email:
Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    Other versions:
  2. McManus, Douglas A. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Multiple optima and asymptotic approximations in the partial adjustment model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 91-128, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maddala, G S & Jeong, Jinook, 1992. "On the Exact Small Sample Distribution of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 181-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kleibergen, Frank & Zivot, Eric, 2003. "Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1990. "The Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator and Its t-Ratio When the Instrument Is a Poor One," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages S125-40, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jean-Marie Dufour & Mohamed Taamouti, 2005. "Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1351-1365, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    Other versions:
  8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods," Working Papers 04-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. repec:bep:maccon:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1206-1206 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 2003. "Evaluating the Calvo model of sticky prices," Working Paper Series WP-03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Buse, A, 1992. "The Bias of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 173-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A General Theory of Hypothesis Testing in the Simultaneous Equations Model," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1992, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  16. Wright, Jonathan H., 2003. "Detecting Lack Of Identification In Gmm," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 322-330, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  19. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Exact tests for contemporaneous correlation of disturbances in seemingly unrelated regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 143-170, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-98, May.
    Other versions:
  21. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Pricing-to-market tests in instrumental regressions: Case of the transportation equipment industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 293-309, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gagnon, Edith & Khan, Hashmat, 2005. "New Phillips curve under alternative production technologies for Canada, the United States, and the Euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1571-1602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Lynda Khalaf & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2004. "Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Inference in Simultaneous Equations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 239, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  24. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
  25. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  27. Choi, In & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1992. "Asymptotic and finite sample distribution theory for IV estimators and tests in partially identified structural equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 113-150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 815-43, August.
  29. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Split Sample Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2004. "Estimating forward looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal instruments approach," Working Papers 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  32. Jiahui Wang & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1389-1404, November.
  33. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  35. John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  36. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May. [Downloadable!]
  37. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bill Russell, 2007. "Non-Stationary Inflation and Panel Estimates of United States Short and Long-run Phillips curves," Discussion Papers 200, University of Dundee, Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sandeep Mazumder, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost," Economics Working Paper Archive 545, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 09-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models," Working Papers 09-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, . "Investment adjustment costs: evidence from UK and US industries," Bank of England working papers 332, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 785, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over 80% of the top 1000 economists are registered on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.