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Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

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Author Info
James M. Nason () (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Gregor W. Smith () (Queen's University)

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Abstract

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. New Keynesian Phillips curves describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these curves under GMM and traces this syndrome to a lack of persistence in either exogenous variables or shocks. We employ analytic methods to understand the identification problem in several statistical environments: under strict exogeneity, in a vector autoregression, and in the canonical three-equation, New Keynesian model. Given U.S., U.K., and Canadian data, we revisit the empirical evidence and construct tests and confidence intervals based on exact and pivotal Anderson-Rubin statistics that are robust to weak identification. These tests find little evidence of forward-looking inflation dynamics.

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File URL: http://www.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1026.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1026.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1026

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Keywords: Phillips curve Keynesian identification inflation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aurelijus Dabušinskas & Dmitry Kulikov, 2007. "New Keynesian Phillips curve for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 26 Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie Dufour & KHALAF, Lynda & KICHIAN, Maral, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis," Cahiers de recherche 2005-17, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de España Working Papers 0715, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2006. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification," Working Papers 2006-13, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. André Kurmann, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Theories with an Application to New Keynesian Pricing," Macroeconomics 0409028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. James Murray, 2008. "Initial Expectations in New Keynesian Models with Learning," Caepr Working Papers 2008-017, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Pooling Forecasts in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 1129, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. CARRILLO, Julio & FÈVE, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & James H. Stock, 2005. "Inference with Weak Instruments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1530, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2004. "On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 152, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Frode Brevik & Manfred Gärtner, 2005. "Partisan Theory and the New Keynesian and Sticky-Information Phillips Curves," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar, 2008. "Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 94, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Richard Luger, 2004. "Exact Permutation Tests for Non-nested Non-linear Regression Models," Emory Economics 0419, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  16. Jean Imbs & Eric Jondeau & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Aggregating Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 785, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2006. "How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? An Indirect Inference Approach," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1446-1446. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fanelli, Luca, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve through Vector Autoregressive models: Results from the Euro area," MPRA Paper 1617, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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