On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics
AbstractWe study identification in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identified. For any given exactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to provide four examples of the consequences of lack of identification. In our first two examples we show that it is not possible to tell whether the policy rule or the Phillips curve is forward or backward looking. In example 3 we establish an equivalence between a class of models proposed by Benhabib and Farmer and the standard new-Keynesian model. This result is disturbing since equilibria in the Benhabib-Farmer model are typically indeterminate for a class of policy rules that generate determinate outcomes in the new-Keynesian model. In example 4, we show that there is an equivalence between determinate and indeterminate models even if one knows the structural equations of the model
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 152.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-08-16 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Argia Sbordone, 2002.
"An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2001. "An Optimizing Model of U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics," Departmental Working Papers 200110, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Sbordone's estimation for a sticky price model," QM&RBC Codes 116, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005.
"New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
- Jess Benhabib & Roger Farmer, 1998.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2055, David K. Levine.
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2003.
"Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks,"
Working Paper Series
0275, European Central Bank.
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4106, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- repec:fth:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
- Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000.
"Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1996.
"The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1997.
"An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, . "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 1997-71, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005.
"Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips curve,"
2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
- Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994.
"The Econometrics of Indeterminacy: An Applied Study,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
720, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.