Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Inflation persistence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

Abstract

This paper examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins with a definition of persistence, emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the possibility that persistence may have changed over time. The paper then examines the theoretical sources of persistence, distinguishing “intrinsic” from “inherited” persistence, and deriving a number of analytical results on persistence. It summarizes the implications for persistence from the literatures on “sticky-information” models, learning models, and so-called “trend inflation models,” providing some new results throughout.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2009/wp0914.htm
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2009/wp0914.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 09-14.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:09-14

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210
Phone: 617-973-3397
Fax: 617-973-4221
Email:
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Altissimo, Filippo & Mojon, Benoit & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 231-241, March.
  2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2006. "Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  3. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
  4. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabià Gumbau-Brisa & Denny Lie & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2009. "Closed-form estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve with time-varying trend inflation," Working Papers 09-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 12824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
  11. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  13. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  14. Karl Whelan & Jeremy Rudd, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 181, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05.
  16. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Aggregate Consequences of Fixed Costs of Price Adjustment [Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 433-36, June.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  18. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1989. "State-Dependent Pricing And The Dynamics Of Money And Output," Discussion Papers 1989_32, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  19. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  20. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
  21. Carlos Carvalho, 2005. "Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," Macroeconomics 0509017, EconWPA, revised 12 Sep 2005.
  22. Bakhshi Hasan & Hashmat Khan & Barbara Rudolf, 2005. "The Phillips curve under state-dependent pricing," Working Papers 2005-01, Swiss National Bank.
  23. Sheedy, Kevin D., 2010. "Intrinsic inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1049-1061, November.
  24. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2004. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Jul 2005.
  25. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  26. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  27. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2002-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  28. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 183, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  29. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Comment on: Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 977-982, July.
  30. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. L. J. �lvarez & E. Dhyne & M. Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & H. Le Bihan & P. L�nnemann & F. Martins & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & P. Vermeulen & J. Vilmunen, 2005. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence," DNB Working Papers 062, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  32. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  33. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  35. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Aggregate price adjustment: the Fischerian alternative," Working Papers 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  36. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1989. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  38. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Interpreting Inflation Persistence: Comments on the Conference on "Quantitative Evidence on Price Determination"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 203-210, 02.
  41. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
  42. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  43. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  44. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
  45. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
  47. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Are 'intrinsic inflation persistence' models structural in the sense of Lucas (1976)?," Working Paper Series 1038, European Central Bank.
  48. Benati, Luca, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 0851, European Central Bank.
  49. Burstein, Ariel T., 2006. "Inflation and output dynamics with state-dependent pricing decisions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1235-1257, October.
  50. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  51. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  52. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  53. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  54. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  55. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-48, June.
  56. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
  57. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  59. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  60. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  61. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2008. "Special issue comment on optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2536-2542, August.
  62. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2009. "What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices?," Bank of England working papers 364, Bank of England.
  63. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Sugestão de leitura: Persistência de inflação
    by "O" Anonimo in A Mão Visível on 2010-01-25 03:28:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pontiggia, D., 2012. "Optimal long-run inflation and the New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1077-1094.
  2. Henning Weber, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2011. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Role of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model for the USA and Australia," MPRA Paper 29606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
  5. Muhammad, Omer & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Excess Interbank Liquidity: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 56143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Roman Sustek, 2011. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 592-612, October.
  7. Pietro Bonaldi & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, . "Importancia de las rigideces nominales y reales en Colombia: un enfoque de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Borradores de Economia 591, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2010. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," IMK Working Paper 16-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  9. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., . "La persistencia estadística de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 623, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Barnes, Michelle L. & Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià & Lie, Denny & Olivei, Giovanni P., 2011. "Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2011-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  11. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 259-262.
  12. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:09-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.