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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices

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  • Chengsi Zhang

    (School of Finance, Renmin University of China)

  • Denise R. Osborn

    (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester)

  • Dong Heon Kim

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short-run aggregate supply curve. This inconsistency is examined by investigating multiple structural changes in the NKPC for the US between 1960 and 2005, employing both inflation expectations survey data and a rational expectations approximation. We find that forward-looking behavior plays a smaller role during the high and volatile inflation regime to 1981 than in the subsequent period of moderate inflation, providing empirical support for sticky price models over the last two decades. A break in the intercept of the NKPC is also identified around 2001 and this may be associated with US monetary policy in that period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Korea University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 0715.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0715

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Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips Curve; inflation survey forecasts; sticky prices; structural breaks; monetary policy;

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