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Inflation persistence

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Author Info

  • Jeff Fuhrer
  • George Moore

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the behavior of the conventional Phelps-Taylor model of overlapping wage contracts stands in stark contrast with important features of U.S. macro data for inflation and output. In particular, the Phelps-Taylor specification implies far too little inflation persistence. The authors present a new contracting model, in which agents are concerned with relative real wages, that is data-consistent. In a specification that nests both models, the authors resoundingly reject the conventional contracting model but cannot reject the new contracting model. Copyright 1995, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1993)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1993:i:mar:x:5

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Vector autoregression ; Econometric models;

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References

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  1. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
  3. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  4. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
  5. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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  1. Quantitative Macroeconomics and Real Business Cycles (QM&RBC)

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