Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African monetary union membership

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alagidede, Paul
  • Coleman, Simeon
  • Cuestas, Juan Carlos

Abstract

This paper examines the inflation dynamics and common trends in the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the candidate countries of the embryonic West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). Using fractional integration and cointegration methods, we establish that significant heterogeneity in behavior exists among the countries. Shocks to inflation in Sierra Leone are not mean-reverting; results for the Gambia and Ghana suggest some inflation persistence, despite being mean-reverting. Further, the cointegration results indicate the presence of only one common trend. With much attention currently being placed on convergence criteria and preparedness of the aspiring member states, less attention has been given to the extent to which the dynamics of inflation and economic trends in the individual countries are (dis)similar. We discuss some policy implications and highlight political implications.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893811001177
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 460-475

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:460-475

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Inflationary shocks; Fractional integration; Stationarity; West Africa; Monetary unions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  3. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  4. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  5. Fielding, David, 2004. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  6. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  8. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  10. Laurence Ball, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 3621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
  12. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2011. "Regional Asymmetries in the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Prices: Evidence from US Cities," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(1), pages 79-103, 02.
  13. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  14. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
  15. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
  16. Paolo Zagaglia, 2009. "Fractional integration of inflation rates: a note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1103-1105.
  17. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1998. "Monetary policy and the well-being of the poor," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 159-201.
  18. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2003. "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU ?," Post-Print halshs-00143785, HAL.
  19. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2000. "Inflation and the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2335, The World Bank.
  21. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Inflation persistence in the Franc Zone: evidence from disaggregated prices," Working Papers 2008/16, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  22. Fielding, David & Shields, Kalvinder, 2006. "Regional asymmetries in monetary transmission: The case of South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 965-979, December.
  23. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  24. Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
  25. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
  26. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy in the euro area in the presence of heterogeneity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 209-226, March.
  27. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  28. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
  29. Candelon, B. & Gil-Alana, L. A., 2004. "Seasonal and long-run fractional integration in the Industrial Production Indexes of some Latin American countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 301-313, April.
  30. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  31. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, 08.
  32. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  33. Paul De Grauwe, 2000. "Monetary Policies in the Presence of Asymmetries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 593-612, November.
  34. Singh, Kanhaiya & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2003. "The inflation-growth nexus in India: an empirical analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 377-396, June.
  35. Levin, Andrew T. & Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview," Working Paper Series 0539, European Central Bank.
  36. Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
  37. De Grauwe, Paul, 2000. "Monetary Policies In The Presence Of Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Augustine Arize & John Malindretos & Kiseok Nam, 2005. "Inflation and Structural Change in 50 Developing Countries," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 461-471, December.
  39. Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Working Papers 00-5, Bank of Canada.
  40. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Asongu, Simplice A, 2013. "How would monetary policy matter in the proposed African monetary unions? Evidence from output and prices," MPRA Paper 48496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Mustapha Ibn Boamah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Countries of the Proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 74-82, February.
  3. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real and Monetary Policy Convergence Analysis," MPRA Paper 36056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union," Working Papers 13/030, African Governance and Development Institute..
  5. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis," MPRA Paper 41552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," Working Papers 13/016, African Governance and Development Institute..
  7. Chuku, Chuku, 2012. "The proposed eco: should West Africa proceed with a common currency?," MPRA Paper 43739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:460-475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.