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Persistence in International Inflation Rates

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College)
John Barkoulas (Louisiana Tech University)
Mustafa Caglayan (Koc University)

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Abstract

We test for fractional dynamics in CPI-based inflation rates for twenty-seven countries and WPI-based inflation rates for twenty-two countries. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using semiparametric and approximate maximum likelihood methods. Significant evidence of fractional dynamics with long-memory features is found in both CPI- and WPI-based inflation rates for industrial as well as developing countries. Implications of the findings are considered and sources of long memory are hypothesized.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 333..

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, Southern Economic Journal, 65:4 (1999), 900-914.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:333

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Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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Related research
Keywords: fractional dynamics; inflation; long memory;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
    Other versions:
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994. "On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," Working Papers 2009/2, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Does Capital Account Openness Lower Inflation?," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 191, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard T. Baille & Claudio Morana, 2009. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 06-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Claudio Morana, 2004. "The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?," ICER Working Papers 29-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Fractional Monetary Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 321., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  12. Taner Yigit, 2002. "Effects of Moments on Aggregation and Long Memory in Inflation," Departmental Working Papers 0210, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Barbara Meller & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "The Impact of the European Monetary Union on Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jinquan Liu & Tingguo Zheng & Jianli Sui, 2008. "Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 240-254, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. D.J.C. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2000. "A nonlinear long memory model for US unemployment," Econometric Institute Report 204, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
  20. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  21. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Gurkan S. Oguz, 1997. "Stochastic Long Memory in Traded Goods Prices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 349., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Vuslat Us & Kývýlcým Metin Ozcan, 2003. "Optimal Univariate Expectations under High and Persistent Inflation : New Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 2003/4, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
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