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Persistence in International Inflation Rates

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College)
John Barkoulas (Louisiana Tech University)
Mustafa Caglayan (Koc University)

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Abstract

We test for fractional dynamics in CPI-based inflation rates for twenty-seven countries and WPI-based inflation rates for twenty-two countries. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using semiparametric and approximate maximum likelihood methods. Significant evidence of fractional dynamics with long-memory features is found in both CPI- and WPI-based inflation rates for industrial as well as developing countries. Implications of the findings are considered and sources of long memory are hypothesized.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/WP333.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 333..

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
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Publication status: published, Southern Economic Journal, 65:4 (1999), 900-914.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:333

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Related research
Keywords: fractional dynamics inflation long memory

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
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  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994. "On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Does Capital Account Openness Lower Inflation?," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 191, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  4. Claudio Morana, 2004. "The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?," ICER Working Papers 29-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Fractional Monetary Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 321., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Taner Yigit, 2002. "Effects of Moments on Aggregation and Long Memory in Inflation," Departmental Working Papers 0210, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, 1999. "A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 944, Society for Computational Economics, revised 18 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Claudio Morana, 2005. "The Japanese deflation: has it had real effects? Could it have been avoided?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1337-1352, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. D.J.C. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2000. "A nonlinear long memory model for US unemployment," Econometric Institute Report 204, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Gurkan S. Oguz, 1997. "Stochastic Long Memory in Traded Goods Prices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 349., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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