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Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach

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Author Info
Brunner, Allan D
Hess, Gregory D

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Abstract

Milton Friedman (1977) proposed that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Using state-dependent models of conditional moments, the authors find strong statistical evidence that higher levels of inflation are less predictable, although innovations in inflation are somewhat bet ter predictors of future volatility than actual inflation. The authors' results are robust to different sample periods and to assumptions about a unit root in inflation. The authors also compare their resul ts to estimates using exponential generalized autoregressive conditiona l heteroskedasticity models, an alternative to state dependent models that also allows for asymmetries but does not nest conventional models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 187-97
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:11:y:1993:i:2:p:187-97

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  1. Menelaos Karanasosa & Stefanie Schurer, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0018, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Crawford, A & Kasumovich, M, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francis Vitek, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth," Working Papers 02-39, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Stilianos Fountas & Alexandra Ioannidis & Menelaos Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and a common European Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 30, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Allan D. Brunner & David P. Simon, 1995. "Excess returns and risk at the long end of the Treasury market: an EGARCH-M approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 522, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Guglielmo maria Coporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The EURO and Inflation Uncertainty In The EMU," Working Papers 2005_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro And Inflation Uncertainty In The European Monetary Union," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "On the dynamic properties of asymmetric models of real GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 489, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is There Too Much Certainty When Measuring Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sharon Kozicki & Barak Hoffman, 1999. "Implications of rounding and rebasing for empirical analysis using consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  14. Richard T. Baille & Claudio Morana, 2009. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 06-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dongsoon Park, 1995. "Inflation And Uncertainty: The Case Of Korea," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 39-52, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1998. "The relation between the level and uncertainty of inflation," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0698, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  18. André Binette & Sylvain Martel, 2005. "Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 05-28, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  19. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Banco de España Working Papers 0812, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2001. "Does Lower Inflation Imply Lower Price Uncertainty?," EERC Working Paper Series 2k-06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  21. Eric Schaling & Marco Hoeberichts & Sylvester Eijffinger, . "Incentive schemes for central bankers under uncertainty: inflation targets versus contracts," Bank of England working papers 88, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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