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The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

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Laura Mayoral ()

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Abstract

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 958.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision: Oct 2005
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:958

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation persistence; persistence stability; ARFIMA models; long memory; structural breaks; bayesian estimations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  3. Barbara Meller & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "The Impact of the European Monetary Union on Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Maria Carolina da Silva Leme, 2008. "Inflation and Interest Rate: Which one is more persistent in Brazil?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181224190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Babecký, Jan & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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