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Is the Observed Persistence Spurious? A Test for Fractional Integration versus Short Memory and Structural Breaks

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  • Laura Mayoral

Abstract

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Is the Observed Persistence Spurious? A Test for Fractional Integration versus Short Memory and Structural Breaks," Working Papers 260, Barcelona School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:260
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    Cited by:

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    3. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Agnieszka Leszczynska & Katarzyna Hertel, 2013. "Inflation persistence – a disaggregated approach," EcoMod2013 5692, EcoMod.
    5. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    6. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "What is What? A Simple Time-Domain Test of Long-memory vs. Structural Breaks," Working Papers 258, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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