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The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Andrew W. Lo

Abstract

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine the sources and nature of long-range dependence in the business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Review/2001/nature.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 15-30

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qii:p:15-30

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Econometric models;

References

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  1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Persistence in Convergence," Working Papers 1105, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
  3. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  4. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 261-272.
  7. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, . "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  8. Laura Mayoral, 2003. "Further Evidence on the Uncertain (Fractional) Unit Root in Real GNP," Working Papers 82, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
  10. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries:a Fractionally Integrated Approach," Working Papers 259, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  11. Francis Ahking, 2010. "Non-parametric tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 439-456, October.

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