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The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

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Author Info
Joseph G. Haubrich
Andrew W. Lo

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Abstract

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine the sources and nature of long-range dependence in the business cycle.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 15-30
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qii:p:15-30

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Econometric models;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of Real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Long Memory in US Real Output per Capita," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francis W. Ahking, 2004. "Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Working papers 2004-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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