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Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data

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Author Info
Cati, Regina Celia
Garcia, Marcio G P
Perron, Pierre

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Abstract

This paper considers econometric issues related to time-series data that have been subject to abrupt governmental interventions. The motivating example for this study is the Brazilian monthly inflation rate (1974:1-1993:6) which we use throughout for illustration. This series has been heavily influenced by the effect of so-called shock plans implemented by various governments starting in the mid-1980s. The plans act as 'inliers' in the sense that the series is temporarily brought down to low levels before returning to its previous trend path. We analyse the effects on standard unit root tests and measures of persistence caused by the presence of these 'inliers'. We show a substantial bias in favour of concluding that the series is stationary and that shocks have temporary effects. We then construct appropriately corrected statistics which take into account the presence of the plans. These show, unlike the standard tests, that the stochastic behaviour of the inflation rate was indeed unstable over this period. Simulation results are presented to support the adequacy of our corrected statistics.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1999-v14.1/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (Jan.-Feb.)
Pages: 27-56
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:1:p:27-56

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  5. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
  9. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  10. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
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  11. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. JOÃO RICARDO FARIA & FRANCISCO GALRÃO CARNEIRO, 2003. "Devaluation, Output And Wages," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 15-27, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. María Gadea & Marcela Sabaté, 2004. "The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: The Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound Sterling from 1883 to 1931," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Maria Carolina da Silva Leme, 2008. "Inflation and Interest Rate: Which one is more persistent in Brazil?," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807181224190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. Afonso S. Bevilaqua, 2001. "The Structure of Public Sector Debt in Brazil," RES Working Papers 3121, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Ivan Castelar, 2006. "Nonlinearities And Price Puzzle In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 163, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1997. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Textos para discussão 368, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, . "Unit and Fractional Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Changes with an Application to the Brazilian Inf," Faculty Working Papers 19/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  10. André Minella, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): A VAR Estimation," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(3), April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Gawon Yoon, 2003. "The time series behaviour of Brazilian inflation rate: new evidence from unit root tests with good size and power," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 627-631, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Martin Cerisola & R. Gaston Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Felipe M. Aparicio & Alvaro Escribano & Ana García, 2003. "Range Unit Root Tests," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws031126, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  14. Wilson Luiz Rotatori, 2006. "Dynamic Structural Models And The High Inflation Period In Brazil: Modelling The Monetary System," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 44, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ana Katarina Campêlo & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Inliers: The Case of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), April. [Downloadable!]
  16. Niels Haldrup & Antonio Montanés & Andreu Sanso, . "Measurement Errors and Outliers in Seasonal Unit Root Testing," Economics Working Papers 2000-8, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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