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The unemployment structure of the US States

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Author Info
Clemente, Jesus ()
Lanaspa, Luis ()
Montañés, Antonio ()

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Abstract

This paper analyses the time series properties of the unemployment rates of the 50 US States, as well as the global rate of the USA. Our results, based on the use of ADF-type tests, show that the inclusion of some breaks is vital in order to reduce the persistence on these rates. Thus, we can reject the unit root null hypothesis versus a double mean-shifted stationary alternative for 46 States and for the US total rate. We also find that the behavior of this latter rate is not congruent with that of the States, implying the presence of some aggregation problems which have not been commonly accounted in the literature.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p081.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p081

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  5. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304. [Downloadable!]
  9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  12. Jerry Coakley & Ana-María Fuertes & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Evaluating the Persistence and Structuralist Theories of Unemployment from a Nonlinear Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(3), pages 1078-1078. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  14. Roed, Knut, 1996. "Unemployment Hysteresis--Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-600.
  15. John M. Roberts & Norman J. Morin, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  1. Gomes, F. A. R. & Silva, C. G., 2007. "Hysteresis vs. NAIRU and Convergence vs. Divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_71, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2006. "Hysteresis Vs. Nairu And Convergence Vs. Divergence: The Behavior Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 161, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gomes, F. A. R. & Silva, C. G., 2007. "Measuring Unemployment Persistence of Different Labor Force Groups In the Greater Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_69, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Frankel & Krzysztof Burdzy, 2005. "Shocks and Business Cycles," Advances in Theoretical Economics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1140-1140. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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