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The unemployment structure of the US States

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  • Clemente, Jesus

    ()

  • Lanaspa, Luis

    ()

  • Montañés, Antonio

    ()

Abstract

This paper analyses the time series properties of the unemployment rates of the 50 US States, as well as the global rate of the USA. Our results, based on the use of ADF-type tests, show that the inclusion of some breaks is vital in order to reduce the persistence on these rates. Thus, we can reject the unit root null hypothesis versus a double mean-shifted stationary alternative for 46 States and for the US total rate. We also find that the behavior of this latter rate is not congruent with that of the States, implying the presence of some aggregation problems which have not been commonly accounted in the literature.

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File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/081.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p081.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p081

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References

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  1. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May.
  2. James Payne & Bradley Ewing & Erik George, 1999. "Time series dynamics of US State unemployment rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1503-1510.
  3. Montañés, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1999. "The asymptotic behaviour of the Dickey-Fuller tests under the crash hypothesis," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-89, March.
  4. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
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  16. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  18. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  19. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  20. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  23. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  24. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 1997. "The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-606.
  25. Monta s, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Effect Of A Shift In The Trend Function On Dickey Fuller Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 355-363, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
  2. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2006. "Hysteresis Vs. Nairu And Convergence Vs. Divergence: The Behavior Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 161, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2013. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working papers 2013-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2013. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," Documentos de Trabajo 2013-367, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  5. Andréa Zaitune Curi & Naércio Aquino Menezes-Filho, 2005. "A Relação Entre O Desempenho Escolar E Os Salários No Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 158, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2008. "Common smooth transition trend-stationarity in European unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 106-109, November.
  7. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
  8. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.

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