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Measurement Errors and Outliers in Seasonal Unit Root Testing

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Author Info
Niels Haldrup
Antonio Montanés
Andreu Sanso () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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Abstract

Frequently, seasonal and non-seasonal data (especially macro time series) are observed with noise. For instance, the time series can have irregular abrupt changes and interruptions following as a result of additive or temporary change outliers caused by external circumstances which are irrelevant for the series of interest. Equally, the time series can have measurement errors. In this paper we analyse the above types of data irregularities on the behaviour of seasonal unit root tests. It occurs that in most cases outliers and measurement errors can seriously affect inference towards the rejection of seasonal unit roots. It is shown how the distortion of the tests will depend upon the frequency, magnitude, and persistence of the outliers as well as on the signal to noise ratio associated with measurement errors. Some solutions to the implied inference problems are suggested.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2000-8.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2000-8

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Related research
Keywords: Seasonal unit roots; HEGY tests; additive outliers; measurement errors; Brownian motion;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
    Other versions:
  3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Denise Osborn & Paulo Rodrigues, 2002. "Asymptotic Distributions Of Seasonal Unit Root Tests: A Unifying Approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 221-241. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. J. Breitung & P. H. Franses, . "On Phillips-Perron Type Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-27, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  6. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!]
  8. Smith, R.J. & Taylor, A.M.R., 1999. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Discussion Papers 99-15, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
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  9. Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H.S., 1990. "Seasonal Cointegration: The Japanese Consumption Function," Economics Working Papers 1990-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cizek, Pavel, 2006. "Efficient robust estimation of regression models," Discussion Paper 8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Niels Haldrup & Antonio Montañés & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing for Additive Outliers in Seasonally Integrated Time Series," DEA Working Papers 15, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Härdle, 2006. "Robust Econometrics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gabriel Pons, 2006. "Testing Monthly Seasonal Unit Roots With Monthly and Quarterly Information," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 191-209, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Estimation of Fractional Integration in the Presence of Data Noise," Economics Working Papers 2003-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Niels Haldrup & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A Note on the Vogelsang Test for Additive Outliers," Economics Working Papers 2006-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Niels Haldrup & Antonio Montañés & Andreu Sansó, 2009. "Detection of additive outliers in seasonal time series," CREATES Research Papers 2009-40, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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