Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity
AbstractThe relationship between stock market returns and economic activity is investigated using signal decomposition techniques based on wavelet analysis. After the application of the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to the DJIA stock price index and the industrial production index for the US over the period 1961:1-2006:10 wavelet variance and cross-correlations analyses are used to investigate the scaling properties of the series and the lead/lag relationship between them at different time scales. The results show that stock market returns tend to lead the level of economic activity, but only at the highest scales (lowest frequencies) corresponding to periods of 16 months and longer, and that the leading period increases as the wavelet time scale increases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.
Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwert, G William, 1990.
" Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"The Stock Market and Investment,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
- Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
- Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
- Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
- Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2000.
"(Fractional) Beta Convergence,"
383, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 1998. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Papers 9803, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Lo, Andrew W, 1991.
"Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Tom Doan, . "RSSTATISTIC: RATS procedure to compute R/S Statistic (classical or Lo's modified)," Statistical Software Components RTS00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
- Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
- Jensen, Mark J, 1999.
"Using wavelets to obtain a consistent ordinary least squares estimator of the long-memory parameter,"
39152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mark J. Jensen, 1997. "Using Wavelets to Obtain a Consistent Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter," Econometrics 9710002, EconWPA.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, Bart, 1999.
"Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence,"
Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series
99.8, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
- Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memoranda 015, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
- Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
- Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 249-266.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. " Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-603, September.
- Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
- Pollock, D.S.G., 2006. "Introduction to the special issue on statistical signal extraction and filtering," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2137-2145, May.
- Aminghafari, Mina & Cheze, Nathalie & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2006. "Multivariate denoising using wavelets and principal component analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2381-2398, May.
- repec:hal:journl:halshs-00694420 is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012.
"Alternative Methodology for Turning-Point Detection in Business Cycle : A Wavelet Approach,"
UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Alternative Methodology for Turning-Point Detection in Business Cycle: A Wavelet Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
- Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 26-62, December.
- Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier, 2011.
"Wavelet multiple correlation and cross-correlation: A multiscale analysis of euro zone stock markets,"
2011-04, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
- Fernández-Macho, Javier, 2012. "Wavelet multiple correlation and cross-correlation: A multiscale analysis of Eurozone stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1097-1104.
- Hamrita, Mohamed Essaied & Ben Abdallah, Nidhal & Ben Ammou, Samir, 2009. "The Multi-Scale Interaction between Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price," MPRA Paper 18424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1018-1043, April.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
- Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Money and output: New evidence based on wavelet coherence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 547-550.
- Silvo Dajčman, 2013. "Interdependence Between Some Major European Stock Markets - A Wavelet Lead/Lag Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(1), pages 28-49.
- Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Wavelets for Business Cycle Analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2013.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.