Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries:a Fractionally Integrated Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Laura Mayoral
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://research.barcelonagse.eu/tmp/working_papers/259.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 259.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Feb 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:259

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 Barcelona
    Phone: +34 93 542-1222
    Fax: +34 93 542-1223
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.barcelonagse.eu
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: NULL;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Gary Koop, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers gkoop-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2004. "Fairness and Inflation Persistence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 240-251, 04/05.
    3. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    5. Krämer, Walter & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000. "Testing for structural change in the presence of long memory," Technical Reports 2000,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    6. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 749-79, October.
    7. Coenen, Günter, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 0290, European Central Bank.
    8. Frank Smets & Ignazio Angeloni & Gunter Coenen, 2003. "Persistence, the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 137, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    10. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
    11. Marc Henry & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2002. "The long range dependence paradigm for macroeconomics and finance," Discussion Papers 0102-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    12. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 77, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    15. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    16. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
    17. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    18. David Byers & James Davidson & David Peel, 1997. "Modelling Political Popularity: an Analysis of Long-range Dependence in Opinion Poll Series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 471-490.
    19. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
    20. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruno Guallar).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.