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Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections

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Author Info
Òscar Jordà

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Abstract

This paper introduces methods to compute impulse responses without specification and estimation of the underlying multivariate dynamic system. The central idea consists in estimating local projections at each period of interest rather than extrapolating into increasingly distant horizons from a given model, as it is done with vector autoregressions (VAR). The advantages of local projections are numerous: (1) they can be estimated by simple regression techniques with standard regression packages; (2) they are more robust to misspecification; (3) joint or point-wise analytic inference is simple; and (4) they easily accommodate experimentation with highly nonlinear and flexible specifications that may be impractical in a multivariate context. Therefore, these methods are a natural alternative to estimating impulse responses from VARs. Monte Carlo evidence and an application to a simple, closed-economy, new-Keynesian model clarify these numerous advantages.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 95 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 161-182
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:95:y:2005:i:1:p:161-182

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. R. Bhansali, 1996. "Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 577-602, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 941-962, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-38, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jorda, Oscar, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 07-7, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jorda, Oscar & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 08-5, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hall, Alastair & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason M, James & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Working Papers 07-04, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1336-1336 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," Working papers 2006-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Working Papers 07-56, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ryan R. Brady, 2006. "Credit Cards and Monetary Policy: Are Households still Liquidity-Constrained?," Departmental Working Papers 12, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Measuring the persistence of spatial autocorrelation: How long does the spatial connection between housing markets last?," Departmental Working Papers 19, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Trader see, trader do: How do (small) FX traders react to large counterparties' trades?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-415, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  14. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  15. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier, 2008. "Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing," Working Papers 08-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  16. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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