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Error Bands for Impulse Responses

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Author Info
Christopher A. Sims (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Tao Zha (University of Saskatchewan)

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Abstract

We examine the theory and behavior in practice of Bayesian and bootstrap methods for generating error bands on impulse responses in dynamic linear models. The Bayesian intervals have a firmer theoretical foundation in small samples, are easier to compute, and are about as good in small samples by classical criteria as are the best bootstrap intervals. Bootstrap intervals based directly on the simulated small-sample distribution of an estimator, without bias correction, perform very badly. We show that a method that has been used to extend to the overidentified case standard algorithms for Bayesian intervals in reduced form models is incorrect, and we show how to obtain correct Bayesian intervals for this case.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1085.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1085

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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  1. repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lastrapes, William D & Selgin, George A, 1994. "Buffer-Stock Money: Interpreting Short-Run Dynamics Using Long-Run Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 34-54, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Poterba, James M & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Tax-Based Test for Nominal Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 659-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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