Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Impulse Response Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pesavento, Elena
  • Rossi, Barbara

Abstract

This paper is a comprehensive comparison of existing methods for constructing confidence bands for univariate impulse response functions in the presence of high persistence. Monte Carlo results show that Kilian (1998a), Wright (2000), Gospodinov (2004) and Pesavento and Rossi (2005) have favorable coverage properties, although they differ in terms of robustness at various horizons, median unbiasedness, and reliability in the possible presence of a unit or mildly explosive root. On the other hand, methods like Runkleís (1987) bootstrap, Andrews and Chen (1994), and regressions in levels or first differences (even when based on pre-tests) may not have accurate coverage properties. The paper makes recommendations as to the appropriateness of each method in empirical work.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.duke.edu/~brossi/Univirf7.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06-03.

as in new window
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:06-03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/

Related research

Keywords: Local to unity asymptotics; persistence; impulse response functions;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  3. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
  4. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  5. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2004. "Small Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers 4536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274, January.
  8. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
  9. Fabio Busetti & Silvia Fabiani & Andrew Harvey, 2006. "Convergence of Prices and Rates of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 863-877, December.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1102, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and the PPP Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0310009, EconWPA.
  13. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  14. Ventzislav Ivanov & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 2.
  15. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-25, February.
  16. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  17. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
  18. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  19. Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Confidence Intervals for Half-life Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 02-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  20. Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
  21. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  22. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
  23. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  24. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2004. "Asymptotic confidence intervals for impulse responses of near-integrated processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 505-527, December.
  25. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Confidence Intervals for Univariate Impulse Responses with a Near Unit Root," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 368-73, July.
  26. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
  27. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
  28. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:06-03

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics Webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.