IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • K. Azim Ozdemir

Abstract

This paper investigates the importance of interest rate shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics during the relatively low-inflation period in Turkey after mid-2000s. For this purpose, we compute impulse response functions using not only VAR models but also multi-step ahead forecast regressions, which are referred as Local Projections. Estimations are carried out on two different monthly data sets, a set of conventional series and a newly constructed set of series for measuring real GDP, the price level and the exchange market pressure in Turkey. Impulse responses obtained from newly constructed series exhibit more plausible dynamics than the conventional series after an interest rate shock. Moreover, results from Local Projections show remarkably similar dynamic responses to those obtained from the VAR models. This finding can be interpreted as an evidence that the identified VAR models successfully capture the true relationships among the variables.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2015/15-04
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    3. Kapetanios, G. & Pagan, A. & Scott, A., 2007. "Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 565-594, February.
    4. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Burak Dogan, 2014. "An interest-rate-spread-based measure of Turkish monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 1804-1813, May.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    7. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
    8. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2012. "Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 470-492, June.
    9. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    10. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    12. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    13. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    14. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    15. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    16. Zelal AKTAŞ & Harun ALP & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Mehtap KESRİYELİ & Musa ORAK, 2009. "Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(278), pages 9-24.
    17. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    18. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    19. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    20. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-652, June.
    21. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    22. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Baoline Chen, 2007. "An Empirical Comparison of Methods for Temporal Distribution and Interpolation at the National Accounts," BEA Papers 0077, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    24. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
    25. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    26. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: Puzzling Evidence from the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 95-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    27. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    28. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
    2. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    3. Tim Willems, 2011. "Using Dollarized Countries to Analyze the Effects of US Monetary Policy Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 200, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2012. "Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(3), pages 470-492, June.
    5. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Muhanji, Stella & Malikane, Christopher & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Price and liquidity puzzles of a monetary shock: Evidence from indebted African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 620-630.
    8. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    11. B. Mojon, 1999. "Monetary policy under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. The case of France between 1987 and 1996," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(211), pages 401-430.
    12. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    13. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    14. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis & Elham Saeidinezhad, 2011. "Monetary policy effects on output and exchange rates: Results from US, UK and Japan," Working Papers 2011016, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    16. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    18. Castillo, Paul & Pérez, Fernando & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 21, pages 41-63.
    19. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    20. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Identification; VAR; Local Projections; Interpolation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.